When will the market turn?
Housing affordability has declined dramatically in 2022 due to continued rising home prices and a three-percentage point jump in mortgage rates. Based on the popularity of Google searches for “housing bust” or “housing bubble”, it could be surmised that buyers are anticipating relief, but they are probably not going to see it anytime soon.
Home price appreciation is moderating and is down from the 20% level experienced in 2021. Some of the major industry prognosticators are estimating anywhere from 9% to 14% for 2022. Interest rates are expected to continue to rise through the end of 2022 and could be at 7%. Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.66% on October 6, 2022.
Even though homes currently for sale increased to 3.2 months in August 2022, it isn’t that much more than it was for the same month in 2021 when it was at 2.6 months. Most markets are still entrenched in favor of sellers because a balanced market between buyer’s and seller’s is at six month’s supply.
While buyers may be feeling that a new home is no longer affordable, there are several affordability indexes that provide a baseline for objective measurement. The National Association of REALTORS® produces a monthly index. Affordability is determined by indicating a median income person/family can afford to purchase a median priced home with a 20% down payment based on a 25% qualifying ratio for monthly housing expense to gross monthly income.
The index is structured so that a value of 100 indicates that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. When the index is above 100, the family has more than enough to qualify.
The NAR Housing Affordability Index for 2019, 2020, and 2021 was 159.7, 169.9 and 152 respectively. It was 143.1 in January and by April had decreased to 108.1 and the preliminary number for June is 98.5. The decrease in the index is directly affected by rising interest rates and home prices outpacing family income.
Home sales were seasonally adjusted in August to be 4.8 million which is down .4% from the previous month and down 19.9% from August 2021. Lower sales are partly a function of a smaller pool of eligible buyers and concerns about a variety of economic conditions.
This may not sound like good news for buyers whether they are labeled first-time or move-up, but it is an objective view of the market. It has become more expensive to buy a home now and will continue to increase in the future.
Getting into a house using whatever devices are necessary can at least put the momentum on your side. Homes are appreciating faster than inflation and the fact that leverage improves the growth rate due to using borrowed funds to buy the home is also to the buyer’s advantage.
So, getting back to the original question “when will the market turn to make homes more affordable?” It may not be a dramatic change but more likely, a subtle one. Prices will moderate by still appreciating but not as much as in 2021. Inventories will increase slightly but won’t affect price because the low supply has been almost a decade in the making and it will take time to reach balance in the market.
Mortgage rates are not as low as they were, but they never were before in the history of the U.S. Millions of people had mortgages in the 1980’s that were as high as 18.5%. Buyers financed the homes at the going market rate, sometimes with creative financing, and refinanced the properties later when the rates came down and the values had gone up.
Real estate is still a great hedge against inflation, and many times, the largest and best investment individuals have. The Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances found that homeowner’s net worth is 41 times greater than renters.
“Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya?”
You may remember the famous line in the Dirty Harry movie when Clint Eastwood has just had a shootout with bank robbers and is standing in front of the lone surviving thief who is considering going for his gun. Harry with his gun pointed at the bad guy says to him “”Did he fire six shots or only five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a 44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?”
Our economy has had a long recovery from the great recession, due in most part to the housing crisis of 2007-2009. Then, the Pandemic hit in 2020 which tanked the worldwide economy but the surprise to homeowners happened to be housing. 2021 became a red-hot market with prices going up by 21% nationally.
In 2022, mortgage rates have increased by four percentage points and haven’t been this high since 2008. Inflation, at the end of September, reached a 40-year high at 8.2%. The Fed recently said they’ll continue raising rates until they can get inflation near their target of 2% annual rate.
People who own homes have seen their values go up dramatically and so has their net worth. Due to the extremely low inventories and the maturing millennial market, there is a lot of pent-up demand for housing.
This leads us to the scene in the movie. You may be considering buying a house now but at the same time, you’re thinking “Have prices and mortgage rates hit the top of the market so they’ll start coming down or will they continue to go up, making it cost more to get into a home?”
The facts are that the U.S. is the strongest economy in the world. The housing bubble of 2007 was created by over-inflated property values and predatory lending practices. Those conditions don’t exist today. There is a housing shortage in America due to not enough homes being built to keep up with demand and people staying in their homes longer.
Homeowners have record amounts equity in their homes and foreclosure rate hit a historic low at the end of 2021 even though it edged up a bit in spring of 2022 as reported by CoreLogic.
Homes are expected to continue to appreciate but not as fast as they did in 2021. The revised predictions for 2022 appreciation vary from Fannie Mae at 16%, Freddie Mac at 12.8% to NAR at 11.5%.
NAR Senior Economist Nadia Evangelou recently said “Mortgage rates are a heartbeat away from the 7% threshold. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.92% from 6.66% the previous week. While inflation remains elevated, mortgage rates will continue to move up, making homeownership even further out of reach for many.”
If the home you could buy this year for $500,000, will cost you $550,000 next year and the mortgage rate goes up from 6.5% to 7.5%, the payment will go from $2,844 to $3,461 based on a 90% mortgage for 30-years.
If interest rates are temporarily high based on the Fed’s position to lower inflation, a home could be purchased at today’s price and refinanced later when the rates come down. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages allow a borrower to lock in a lower initial rate for five years which would allow a person to find the best time to refinance.
So, back to the movie scene… “you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?”
Homeowners Need Resources
Managing an asset worth hundreds of thousands of dollars is a responsibility that requires attention to details such as timely payment of the mortgage, home repairs and maintenance, upkeep, and oversight on financial issues including taxes, insurance, and other things.
Depending on how long you’ve been a homeowner, you may have faced some of the decisions common to homeownership. Occasionally, there could be something new that you haven’t had to deal with in the past. This is where having a resource you can rely on becomes valuable.
During the buying or selling process, it is natural to turn to your agent for information and advice but during those periods in between where do you go for counsel? Sure, you can turn to the Internet but that may not be the best place to get advice for your situation.
We encourage you to think of us as your “source of real estate information”; someone you’re comfortable with asking a question and confident that you’ll get good advice. We not only want to be there for you when you buy or sell, but all the years in between.
By helping you with the day-to-day decisions of homeownership, we believe we can develop relationships that will lead to future sales when you move again, as well as recommendations to your friends who need the services of a trusted real estate professional.
Whether you simply need the recommendation of service provider, a trustworthy mortgage professional, an estimate of your current market value, or advice on what kind of improvements are best to consider, we’re happy to share that information with you.
Just a few of the kind of questions we get almost every week:
- Can you recommend a good (plumber, painter, handyman, etc.)
- What is the current value of my home?
- How do I challenge a property tax assessment?
- When should a homeowner refinance?
- How often should we update our personal home inventory?
We want to be your “Go-To” person for everything to do with real estate. If you have a real estate question, please call us at (201) 390-6734. If we don’t have the answer, we’ll find it for you or at least, point you in the right direction.